Let us delve into the headline without any prelude or pretence. Today’s topic spans a wide scope, encompassing the dynamics of our politics, particularly the current state of the Awami League, BNP, and Jamaat.
Recently, small political parties—often propelled by foreign intelligence, financial influence, and threats—have gained excessive significance alongside Jatiya Party. However, the most contentious issues now include the coordinators of the July-August movements, the formation and influence of the “Kings Party,” tensions at the India-Bangladesh border, the cooling relations between Delhi and Dhaka, and unrest among the people, media, and bureaucrats of both nations.
Beyond these issues, the victory of the Arakan Army near the Myanmar border and the fallout of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria have further complicated Bangladesh’s political landscape. Donald Trump’s win in the United States, the growing importance of China and Pakistan within Bangladesh, and the sidelining of pro-Indian sentiments have collectively created economic, diplomatic, and political challenges. These issues have reached such complex and insurmountable levels that no one can easily remain unaffected. Similarly, no individual, hero, or superhuman can resolve these overnight. Trapped in an endless web of crises, we are collectively hurtling towards an ocean of uncertainty.
The country’s economy has paralysed its politics. The current government inherited an economy that cannot be improved overnight. Moreover, their inexperience in managing macroeconomics, state administration, and their unclear political agendas have led to instability rather than stability in this critical sector. All economic indicators are in decline, and they conflict with one another. Despite substantial remittance inflow over recent months, the government is struggling to balance this with local currency expenditures due to stagnant revenues. Printing money to pay wages, subsidies, and relief has resulted in skyrocketing inflation, which is evident in the desperation and anxiety of the marginalised population.
Since the pandemic, industrial production has declined sharply. Employment opportunities have decreased, pushing unemployment to alarming levels. Thousands of factories, businesses, and small shops have shut down, with millions more on the verge of closure. A significant portion of the banking and insurance sectors has been kept alive through ICU support. If this support is withdrawn, the financial sector will collapse, possibly breaking all past records of insolvency. In such conditions, domestic or foreign investment is non-existent. On the contrary, turmoil in the garments sector has instilled widespread fear. Import trade has collapsed, and the government, despite efforts, cannot revive it due to a decline in consumer purchasing power. Both imports and local production face severe risks.
The latest developments in the financial sector over the last three months include the closure or depletion of thousands of bank accounts. These accounts do not belong to any Awami League figures; they were accounts with millions of takas in transactions or deposits. Due to the economic downturn, thousands of wealthy individuals have gone bankrupt behind closed doors. Bad loans or defaulted debts are frequently making headlines. Most banks have halted new lending. Even personal loans from banks operated by law enforcement and armed forces have significantly declined over the past few months.
This economic turmoil has triggered severe instability in people’s thoughts and mental states. Essential social virtues—such as respecting others, showing loyalty, and having trust—are deteriorating. The surge in mistrust, doubt, and suspicion is eroding personal, family, social, and political relationships. As a result, the BNP and Jamaat’s relationship, absent the Awami League’s dominance, is no longer the same. In attempting to embrace many of Awami League’s former allies, some have sacrificed long-standing loyal and trusted supporters.
The political parties are scrambling both externally due to suspicion, distrust, and lack of confidence, and internally, they have initiated new conflicts in the changed circumstances. For instance, I will discuss some of the internal yet publicly visible conflicts of the Awami League, BNP, and Jamaat-e-Islami, which have emerged due to the evolving situation. These problems are causing irreparable damage to the parties and pushing politics to the edge of a cliff.
Let’s begin with the Awami League. Following the political shift of 2024, all the anger of the party president has been directed at her favoured bureaucrats. She believes that the way she created partisan bureaucrats and recklessly emptied the state treasury for their luxury, entertainment, and indulgence, has ultimately resulted in betrayal.
Secondly, by relying on bureaucrats, she has personally subdued, neutralised, and rendered her political leadership ineffective, incapable, and irrelevant. As a result, she cannot find a single leader at home or abroad to assist her in the current crisis. In this situation, she tries to console herself by talking to prominent grassroots leaders of the Chhatra League from remote areas or to Awami League leaders and activists living in London and America over the phone.
Much like Sheikh Hasina, Begum Khaleda Zia, after stepping down in 2006, had also made unprecedented efforts to speak to grassroots leaders and activists over the phone. Later, while residing in London, acting chairman Tarique Rahman has also maintained regular communication with the grassroots using phone calls, Skype, and WhatsApp technology. Many things can be said in favour or against this. However, today I will not delve into that but instead focus on the current internal problems of the BNP.
In the BNP, veteran leaders loyal to Begum Zia had withdrawn from active politics. However, in the changed circumstances, they have become quite active, which has caused frustration and resentment among many. The acting chairman is known to have no close friends or allies in the political arena. Most central leaders remain silent to retain their positions or are compelled to speak on certain matters. Since 2006, they have not devised any remarkable strategy using their intellect or wit, nor are they known for any significant selfless financial contributions to the party. On the contrary, many party leaders are accused of selling committee positions. Therefore, no one seems to be stepping forward to tackle the changing circumstances. Instead, there is widespread gossip in alleys and corners about who will assume what position if the BNP comes to power.
There are frequent discussions within the BNP about their national conference, the role of the secretary general, Tarique Rahman’s return to the country, and Begum Zia’s departure abroad. Similarly, the behaviour of partisan bureaucrats, the dominance of CBA leaders, control over the transport sector, and contractor businesses, as well as the protection or acquisition of assets, businesses, and illicit sources of income previously controlled by Awami League leaders, have caused great resentment among the BNP’s long-oppressed leaders and activists. These developments are ominous for politics.
Due to these issues, BNP’s top leadership no longer shares the same understanding as before, nor is there any open conflict, which is equally dangerous for a political party. Everyone is focused on the present and counting their earnings. They are cautiously avoiding actions or words that could jeopardise their positions while focusing on financial gains. As a result, instead of the usual political commotion, there is an eerie silence across BNP offices.
Like the Awami League and BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami is also facing harsh realities. Jamaat does not engage in conventional politics, so its conflicts rarely come to light. However, Jamaat’s internal problems play a significant role in national politics, and therefore, an open discussion about this party is essential. If you observe the current Jamaat Amir’s statements and activities, you may think Jamaat is experiencing its golden era. Yet, internally, Jamaat is grappling with issues no less significant than those of the Awami League and BNP.
During the tenure of Professor Ghulam Azam, before the trials for war crimes began, Jamaat’s financial operations—its businesses, banks, and insurance—were divided into two groups: one led by the late Mir Quasem and the other by Abu Zaher. Politically, Kamruzzaman was the most progressive, while leaders like Ali Ahsan Mujahid and Quader Mollah wielded immense organisational power and influence over the party. Delawar Hossain Sayeedi’s popularity, ATM Azhar’s competence, and the brilliance of the late Maqbul Ahmad came to a halt in 2012. Until 2012, the families of Ghulam Azam, Motiur Rahman Nizami, and Mir Quasem held significant influence within Jamaat, creating an elitist and dynastic system reminiscent of the Awami League and BNP.
From 2014, this party-based elitism and financial elitism came under threat, and by 2019, they were forced into the background. In the changed circumstances, Jamaat’s current structure has been established under its present Amir’s leadership. However, following Sheikh Hasina’s decline, Jamaat’s old elitist system has re-emerged, and the pressure it has created on the current leadership is something only Jamaat insiders can explain.
We are now at the final stage of today’s discussion. In conclusion, it must be said that the overall politics of Bangladesh is experiencing the most complex, devious, and frightening phase in its history. None of what is currently happening can be explained within the framework of political grammar. No political formula, magic, or manoeuvre seems to be working now. The dark uncertainty, chaotic fog, and heated disarray have eroded people’s thoughts, feelings, and emotions. As a result, in this deep darkness, if someone fears the touch of a venomous snake and, in that state, their beloved touches their body, they scream in panic. That is precisely the state we are heading toward.
The writer is a former Member of Parliament and political analyst
BDST: 1242 HRS, DEC 16, 2024
